Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 0.008073 0.009109 0.010245 0.011583 0.013122 0.014840 0.016909
2024-10-20 0.006183 0.007519 0.009111 0.011161 0.013745 0.016916 0.021136
2024-10-27 0.005185 0.006619 0.008425 0.010888 0.014192 0.018519 0.024693
2024-11-03 0.004599 0.006107 0.008092 0.010932 0.014947 0.020502 0.028918
2024-11-10 0.004288 0.005894 0.008096 0.011384 0.016256 0.023346 0.034703
2024-11-17 0.003848 0.005444 0.007704 0.011202 0.016596 0.024791 0.038567
2024-11-24 0.003545 0.005148 0.007490 0.011238 0.017237 0.026730 0.043440
2024-12-01 0.003222 0.004788 0.007137 0.011008 0.017413 0.027924 0.047209
2024-12-08 0.003054 0.004643 0.007091 0.011248 0.018360 0.030476 0.053683
2024-12-15 0.002851 0.004424 0.006906 0.011232 0.018864 0.032312 0.059108
2024-12-22 0.002577 0.004067 0.006463 0.010736 0.018467 0.032488 0.061382
2024-12-29 0.002414 0.003878 0.006281 0.010667 0.018821 0.034066 0.066637
2025-01-05 0.002369 0.003885 0.006438 0.011230 0.020435 0.038301 0.078209
2025-01-12 0.002165 0.003607 0.006082 0.010828 0.020175 0.038846 0.082020
2025-01-19 0.002004 0.003392 0.005815 0.010563 0.020148 0.039849 0.087009
2025-01-26 0.001904 0.003275 0.005716 0.010606 0.020742 0.042219 0.095593
2025-02-02 0.001866 0.003267 0.005814 0.011043 0.022199 0.046655 0.110029
2025-02-09 0.001752 0.003109 0.005618 0.010867 0.022325 0.048129 0.117269
2025-02-16 0.001673 0.003012 0.005529 0.010902 0.022915 0.050748 0.128030
2025-02-23 0.001571 0.002863 0.005328 0.010680 0.022897 0.051908 0.135010
2025-03-02 0.001527 0.002823 0.005338 0.010911 0.023951 0.055841 0.150679
2025-03-09 0.001460 0.002733 0.005241 0.010896 0.024418 0.058361 0.162732
2025-03-16 0.001352 0.002553 0.004947 0.010416 0.023707 0.057724 0.164991